Аnalytics of 70 matches.
Pistol rounds are the most crucial in CS. Winning both can earn up to 6 points, which in MR12 realities secures half the path to victory. Moreover, due to grenade limits and the absence of rifles, everyone is equal, and the team with better aim wins. Hence, teams pay a lot of attention to these two rounds, and players constantly practice headshots with USP-S and Glock-18.
During the major, Overdrive once said, "Who gets the first frag in the pistol round wins it." We checked this and reviewed the entire tournament. The original broadcast by Alexey wasn't saved, but he said the phrase during the Cloud9 - G2 match. By the way, in that round, he turned out to be right: Hobbit was left alone on the site, got killed, and then G2 easily won the round.
In total, 146 pistol rounds were played in the "Legends" and playoffs. 67% of rounds match Overdrive's quote, 33% do not. For thirteen out of sixteen teams, the average win rate in 5v4 situations in all rounds is higher than this value, giving the impression that Alexey's words are not true. But actually, Overdrive is correct with one small caveat.
Instant trades are very important in pistol rounds. Yes, a player may get an entry frag, but if they get traded immediately, what's the benefit of the first frag? Moreover, sometimes teams should avoid attempting to find an entry frag altogether. For example, JT got the first frag, but he was left out of position. After an instant trade, Faze had a direct path to bombsite A.
Otherwise, the trading rule works the same as in all other rounds. Trades are beneficial only to the attacking side, as the defense, even while maintaining parity in players, loses control over one of the positions. Out of fifty lost pistol rounds, in sixteen teams, a quick trade was found. If we imagine that there were no trades in them, and the team that found the first frag won, the final percentage would increase to 76%.
And in at least two pistol rounds, the outcome was decided by a standout clutch from a player on the team that initially got the entry frag. Imperial played out a perfect pistol round: found an entry, made favorable trades, and planted the bomb, but two quick frags from Zontix completely turned the game around. In such moments, it's not about structure or the rule of the first frag; it's only about the individual skill of the player.
Before the pistol round begins, all teams are equal. Almost 150 rounds have shown that a frag increases the chances of winning by 16%, and if unnecessary trades are avoided, it's up to 76%. Is Alexey right? Largely, yes. Even such an advantage in the era of extremely cautious CS practically guarantees victory in the round.
And another, much more important conclusion, which not all players have reached. In any situation, try to find a trade and restore parity in players as quickly as possible. This rule applies to any rounds, but it's especially important in pistol rounds.